The 2020 corona pandemic is expected to result in the worst recession since World War II. It will therefore be more severe than the 2008 financial crisis and will leave a clear mark on the statutory pension insurance. In this project we want to examine these traces more closely. Due to the pension adjustment formula, they occur with an one to two year delay and are strongly asymmetrical in favor of the pension recipients. The pension guarantee causes that the security level of pensions will increase significantly in 2021. THis effect will be stronger the deeper the recession will be. According to the old law, the catching-up factor ("Nachholfaktor") would have ensured that this effect would be balanced out again after a few years. However, this is not the case due to the 2019 Pension Pact. As a result, the corona pandemic can leave a lasting mark on the statutory pension insurance if the catch-up factor is not reinstated and the wage decline is significant. mong other things, the pension level is likely to remain higher, which among other things would have to be financed with higher contributions.
A first discussion paper was published in spring in the critical phase of the first corona wave in Germany. The results should be checked on the basis of the actual effects of the shutdown on the German economy and labor market.