Entwicklung der Demographie, der Erwerbstätigkeit, sowie des Leistungsniveaus und der Finanzierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung
This paper presents model calculations for the development of the German statutory pension insurance (GRV). It is mainly based on the MEA-PENSIM model of the Munich Center of the Economics of Aging (MEA) supplemented by the PENPRO model of the DIW. The models project the development of demography and employment as well as the most important parameters of the GRV from assumptions and settings in several steps. The future development of birth rate, life expectancy and immigration are based on the mean assumptions of the 14th coordinated population projection of the Federal Statistical Office. For the employment forecast, we follow the assumptions of the 2019 pension insurance report for the years from 2019 to 2028. We then assume that the employment rates of men will not change in the future, but that employment rates for women will increase over time, as has been typical for recent cohorts. The base scenario is relatively optimistic compared to earlier projections and alternative current forecasts (e.g. Bundesbank 2019). However, the paper also presents the results of a wide range of alternative assumptions.
According to the baseline scenario, the contribution rate to the GRV will exceed the 22% limit in 2033. The statutory replacement rate will fall below 43% in 2039. However, since wages tend to rise more strongly than the demographic burden, the purchasing power of a public pension will not decrease. Rather, it will continue to increase also in the future. This also applies to less optimistic scenarios. Demographic change will not lead to a decrease in pension benefits but only to a slower increase.