Contrary to a common perception, the EU’s long-term budget has undergone major changes in the recent decades, when critical challenges have affected the Union. Temporary solutions have often led to structural policy shifts. The proposal for the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) fits this picture. The evolution of the EU budget has occurred along three dimensions: (i) expenditure composition; (ii) budgetary instruments; (iii) financial architecture. The expenditure share of “new priorities” (research, migration, defence) has accelerated since the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty and especially with the 2021-2027 MFF. The use of financial instruments and budgetary guarantees has expanded, and common EU borrowing has become a central tool, leveraging substantially on the EU budget. Finally, one-off solutions and tools have contributed to building a more consistent architecture.

The lecture will discuss what has driven these structural shifts, and what external and internal political economy factors support budget changes. Some of these factors are the cost of not reaching an agreement (political and economic), national sovereignty considerations, external political constraints, including the increasing relevance of the EU’s strategic autonomy, and the presence of heterogeneous preferences across Member States.